Showing 1 - 10 of 8,500
We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of oil is a stochastic process, interest rates have a zero floor, and bank lending tightening affects the United States. To calculate confidence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008559263
This paper considers the impact of the Constitutional Court on legislative output in Italy.Following Tsebelis' (2002) veto players model and the stylised facts as regards the Italian Constitutional Court's activity, this paper presents a multi-stage game in the spirit of Gely and Spiller (1990)....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005007464
This paper considers the impact of the Constitutional Court on legislative output in Italy. Following Tsebelis’ ((2002) Veto Players: Foundations of Institutional Analysis. Princeton: Princeton University Press) veto players model and the stylised facts as regards the Italian Constitutional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005673736
Currency option implied volatility predicts more efficiently exchange rate volatility for the Polish zloty relative to the Czech koruna, reflecting differences in the frequency of central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market. A GARCH model shows a positive impact of the introduction...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248136
We study the asymptotic properties of the Adaptive LASSO (adaLASSO) in sparse, high-dimensional, linear time-series models. We assume both the number of covariates in the model and candidate variables can increase with the number of observations and the number of candidate variables is,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010851219
solving tasks of forecasting macro-economic indicators. It provides an example of its solution for forecasting the volumes of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010855291
-world practice. This survey seeks to close the gap between research and practice in respect of short-term forecasting in real time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010862275
A Markov-switching model in wind speed forecasting is examined in this research. The proposed method employs a regime … the point and interval wind speed forecast. To examine the forecasting performance of the Markov-switching model, four … wind speed forecasting models, the persistent model, the autoregressive model, the neural networks model, and the Bayesian …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010906287
use industrial production, import and export quantity indices. We perform simulated out of sample forecasting exercise by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010941466
La relación entre la teoría y la políticaeconómica con la práctica y el modelamientoempírico cada día cobra másimportancia. El economista en susinvestigaciones teóricas y/o empíricasante todo debe clarificar y delimitar elcontexto específico de análisis en elcampo teórico económico...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010945886