In this paper we propose a novel goodness-of-fit testing scheme for regime-switching models. We consider models with an observable, as well as, a latent state process. The test is based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov supremum-distance statistic and the concept of the weighted empirical distribution...

This paper complements a recently published study (Janczura and Weron in AStA-Adv Stat Anal 96(3):385–407, <CitationRef CitationID="CR38">2012</CitationRef>) on efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models. Here, we propose a new goodness-of-fit testing scheme for the marginal distribution of such models. We consider models...</citationref>

AMS classifications: 62G08, 62G10, 62G20, 62G30; 60F17.

We propose a new adequacy test and a graphical evaluation tool for nonlinear dynamic models. The proposed techniques can be applied in any setup where parametric conditional distribution of the data is specified, in particular to models involving conditional volatility, conditional higher...

Following a procedure applied to the Erlang-2 distribution in a recent paper, an adjusted Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and critical values are developed for the Erlang-3 and -4 cases using data from Monte Carlo simulations. The test statistic produced features of compactness and ease of...

We propose new tests of the martingale hypothesis based on generalized versions of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Cramer-von Mises tests. The tests are distribution free and allow for a weak drift in the null model. The methods do not require either smoothing parameters or bootstrap resampling for...

In studying the scale invariance of an empirical time series a twofold problem arises: it is necessary to test the series for self-similarity and, once passed such a test, the goal becomes to estimate the parameter H0 of self-similarity. The estimation is therefore correct only if the sequence...

We analyze the high-frequency dynamics of S&P 500 equity-index option prices by constructing an assortment of implied volatility measures. This allows us to infer the underlying fine structure behind the innovations in the latent state variables driving the movements of the volatility surface....

In this paper, we study several tests for the equality of two unknown distributions. Two are based on empirical distribution functions, three others on nonparametric probability density estimates, and the last ones on differences between sample moments. We suggest controlling the size of such...

In the last decade Markov-regime switching (MRS) models have been extensively used for modeling the unique behavior of spot prices in wholesale electricity markets. This popularity stems from the models’ relative parsimony and the ability to capture the stylized facts, in particular the mean...