It has been argued that business-cycle volatility dampens growth. This paper argues that this is no stylised fact. A review of the literature reveals that arguments in favour of no, or even a positive, impact of business-cycle volatility on growth are as convincing as the arguments pointing in...

We evaluate the interaction of inflation and growth forecast errors based on 17 distinct forecasts for the German economy for the period from 1970 to 2004. The forecasts were produced by 14 institutions. Our findings show that, in general, the forecasters did not share a common belief about the...

We analyse stylised facts for Germany's business cycle at the firm level. Based on longitudinal firm-level data from the Bundesbank's balance sheet statistics covering, on average, 55,000 firms per year from 1971 to 1998, we estimate transition probabilities of a firm in a certain real sales...

We establish some stylised facts for Germany's business cycle at the level of the firm. Based on longitudinal firm-level data from the Bundesbank's balance sheet statistic covering, on average, 55,000 firms per year from 1971 to 1998, we analyse the reallocation across individual producers and,...

In a standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework, with sticky prices, the cross sectional distribution of output and inflation across a population of firms is studied. The only form of heterogeneity is confined to the probability that the ith changes its prices in response to a...

Wenngleich sich die Nebel etwas gelichtet haben, ist doch die Sicht auf die weitere wirtschaftliche Entwicklung alles andere als klar. So schlummern im Finanzsektor aufgrund fauler "Wert"papiere noch Risiken in unbekannter Höhe, die Dank staatlich zugelassener Bilanzkosmetik noch nicht die...