Many processes can be represented in a simple form as infinite-order linear series. In such cases, an approximate model is often derived as a truncation of the infinite-order process, for estimation on the finite sample. The literature contains a number of asymptotic distributional results for...

Financial returns typically display heavy tails and some degree of skewness, and conditional variance models with these features often outperform more limited models. The difference in performance may be especially important in estimating quantities that depend on tail features, including risk...

For a general stationary ARMA(<italic>p,q</italic>) process <italic>u</italic> we derive the <italic>exact</italic> form of the orthogonalizing matrix <italic>R</italic> such that <italic>R</italic>′<italic>R</italic> = Σ⁻¹, where Σ = <italic>E</italic>(<italic>uu</italic>′) is the covariance matrix of <italic>u</italic>, generalizing the known formulae for <italic>AR</italic>(<italic>p</italic>) processes. In a linear regression model with an ARMA(<italic>p,q</italic>) error process,...

The pattern of decay of forecast content (or skill) with increasing horizon is well known for many types of meteorological forecasts; by contrast, little generally accepted information about these patterns or content horizons is available for economic variables. In this paper we estimate content...