The paper presents a new approach to exchange rate modelling that augments the CHEER model with a sovereign credit default risk as perceived by financial investors making their decisions. In the cointegrated VAR system with nine variables comprised of the short- and long-term interest rates in...

This paper estimates equilibrium rates of macroeconomic aggregates for small open economies. We simultaneously identify the transitory and permanent components of output, inflation, the interest rate and the exchange rate by means of a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition. Realizations of the...

This paper estimates equilibrium rates of macroeconomic aggregates for small open economies. We simultaneously identify the transitory and permanent components of output, inflation, the interest rate and the exchange rate by means of a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition. Realizations of the...

Bu çalışmada; altın fiyatları, enflasyon ve uzun dönem faiz oranları ile FED bilançoları arasındaki ilişkiler Stock–Watson eşbütünleşme ve Granger nedensellik analizleri kullanılarak ABD ekonomisi için 1960–2011 dönemi itibariyle incelenmiştir. Stock–Watson eşbütünleşme...

This paper decomposes the break-even inflation rates derived from inflation-indexed bonds into inflation risk premia, liquidity risk premia, and inflation expectations. I estimate a common factor model with autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (ARCH) errors that extracts co-movements...

Market interest rates are usually determined not only by the inflation related determinants but also by the forces that affect real interest rates fluctuations. In point of fact the nominal interest rates are driven by many specific determinants so that it should not be clear the nominal...

Economic theory provides clear suggestions in fixed versus flexible exchange rates dilemma in fighting high inflation pressures. However, relative diversity in exchange rate regimes in the European transition economies revealed uncertain and spurious conclusions about the exchange rate regime...

This paper intends to provide possible explanations for the empirical failure of the Fisher hypothesis in terms of economic shocks by employing the quantile cointegration methodology recently proposed by Xiao (2009). Our empirical results for six OECD countries suggest that though the nominal...

Para los bancos centrales con régimen de inflación-objetivo modificar la tasa de interés de política monetaria como respuesta a la apreciación de la tasa cambio puede poner en riesgo el cumplimiento de la meta de inflación. Este trabajo determina qué tan importante ha sido el...

In this paper we systematically evaluate how central banks respond to deviations from the inflation target. We present a stylized New Keynesian model in which agents' inflation expectations are sensitive to deviations from the inflation target. To (re-) establish credibility, monetary policy...