Local governments depend on state aid to provide residents and businesses with vital public services, such as education, police and fire protection, and safe public roads. However, in response to the recent fiscal crisis, many states are quickly and deeply cutting local aid. The Congressional...

This paper develops a new measure of state and local fiscal sustainability called the "trend gap," which is based on socioeconomic and other fundamental factors and removes the short-term influence of the business cycle. The paper estimates the trend gap and finds that the nationwide per capita...

This policy brief evaluates the distribution of municipal aid in Massachusetts in FY 2011 and suggests an approach for reforming municipal aid without redistributing current aid. We use the “municipal gap,” a measure that is outside the control of local officials, to determine a...

In response to the recent fiscal crisis, state governments in the United States have deeply cut aid, often by the same percentage across communities. This across-the-board approach ignores local fiscal disparities and places a larger burden on communities in worse underlying fiscal health. This...

We investigate the effects of political institutions on economic growth. We specifically explore this relationship while controlling for heterogeneity and model uncertainty. We use threshold regression (Hansen 2000) to search for possible nonlinearities and/or interaction effects with respect to...

We investigate the effects of political institutions on economic growth. We specifically explore this relationship while controlling for heterogeneity and model uncertainty. We use threshold regression (Hansen (2000)) to search for possible nonlinearities and/or interaction effects with respect...

In the first calendar year following the Great Recession, signs of an economic recovery began to take shape across New England. An improving labor market picture, growth in income, indications of a stabilizing housing market, and booming exports spurred economic growth in the region in 2010. As...

Tephra fallout is an important type of hazard caused by volcanic eruption, and is also one of the main hazards at Changbaishan volcano, Northeast China. Numerical simulation is an effective approach to assess the dispersion of tephra fallout. According to the theory of dispersion model, we...

In this article we extend the results derived for scan statistics in Wang and Glaz (2014) for independent normal observations. We investigate the performance of two approximations for the distribution of fixed window scan statistics for time series models. An R algorithm for computing...