The paper presents the Version 2000 of the Romanian macromodel (elaborated by the author). For the period 2003-2010, two scenarios have been elaborated. The first, named “Desirable” incorporates the main lines of the Strategy for integration of Romania into European Union. The second...

This paper examines the modelling complications that appear when some macroeconomic behavioral relationships interact with structural variables, even under a given A matrix. The main problem is concretized for the situation when, a) the final consumption, gross fixed capital formation, inventory...

The capacity of input-output tables to reflect the structural peculiarities of an economy and to forecast, on this basis, its evolution, depends essentially on the characteristics of the matrix A—matrix of I-O (or technical) coefficients. However,the temporal behaviour of these coefficients is...

The paper characterizes five operational versions of the macromodels of the Romanian transition economy, elaborated during 1995-2000 years. • The first (1996) was finalized after the author’s visit at the Hoover Institution. This version, as well as the following ones, took into...

The book develops the main lines of thought contained in “Macromodels of the Romanian transition economy”, edited in 1996 by the “Expert Publishing House”. The 1997 version of the macromodel (Dobrescu 1997 b) has included some changes, the following being the most important: - the...

The present book contains six chapters. In the first, the Romanian transition economy is characterized as a weakly structured economy (from the institutional point of view) with its main features: the poorly defined ownership rights, the limited effectiveness of new market mechanisms, the...

The macromodel will be used to investigate short and medium–run economic implications of internal policies and of changes in the international context. This new version of the Romanian macromodel benefites from the experience gained by the author during the utilisation of its previous forms -...

The new (2002) version"" of the "Pre-Accession Economic Programme" has to take into account both the experience accumulated in the implementation of its previous 2001) form, and the changes occurred during 2001-2002 in the domestic and international environment, which have affected the Romanian...

The paper presents the methodology for attaching probability distribution or intervals of variation to point forecasts. This methodology might prove significant for countries that have suffered deep structural transformations in their not very distant past. For these models, stability is more...

The current study uses the 2000 version of the Romanian economy macromodel, amended only by up-dating the inflation econometric function. Special attention will be paid to: • the estimations for 2001 ; • the potential impact of the external environment deterioration upon the Romanian economy...