This study compares two approaches to modeling a term structure of commodity prices. The first approach specifies the stochastic process of the underlying spot price and derives from the stipulated spot price dynamics valuation formulas of futures and other derivative contracts through no...

This study examines bias in a term-structure model of commodity prices in specifying the true stochastic dynamics of underlying spot price. The bias is quantified by comparing the model estimated by the conventional method of estimating all model parameters simultaneously with a panel of futures...

We examine the volatility dynamics of NYMEX natural gas futures prices via the partially overlapping time‐series model of Smith (2005. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 20, 405–422). We show that volatility exhibits two important features: (1) volatility is greater in the winter than in the...

Renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and mandates to invest in cost-effective energy efficiency (EE) are increasingly popular policy tools to combat climate change and dependence on fossil fuels. These supply-side and demand-side policies, however, are often uncoordinated. Using California as a...