We estimate the EU Commission loss preferences for major economic forecasts of 12 Member States. Based on a recently proposed method by Elliott, Komunjer and Timmermann (2005) the paper provides evidence of asymmetries in the underlying forecast loss preference of the Commission that tend to...

Assuming the time series of random returns to be jointly elliptical, we derive a relationship between its conditional variance and the probability density function of the conditioning set. In the case that such a relationship is linear in a quadratic form for of the conditioning variables, we...

A number of volatility forecasting studies have led to the perception that the ARCH- and Stochastic Volatility-type models provide poor out-of-sample forecasts of volatility. This is primarily based on the use of traditional forecast evaluation criteria concerning the accuracy and the...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the asymmetric dynamic rotation of beta coefficients to global investment style factor shocks in the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) universe of assets and its implications for investment management. Design/methodology/approach –...

We investigate the nature of the inflation bias in a model that exhibits asymmetries in preferences and non–normality in shocks but simplifies to the classic Barro-Gordon problem as a special case. The inflation bias is shown to depend on the trade-off between preference, structural and...