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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004998593
Our paper uses simulation methods to examine the size and power of regime-switching tests for bubbles. We find that … tests conservative; they understate the significance of the evidence of bubbles. Despite this, the tests display … considerable power to detect bubbles even when using the conservative asymptotic critical values. We also find that the frequency …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005046486
Our paper uses simulation methods to examine the size and power of regime-switching tests for bubbles. We find that … tests conservative; they understate the significance of the evidence of bubbles. Despite this, the tests display … considerable power to detect bubbles even when using the conservative asymptotic critical values. We also find that the frequency …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004966237
Is real investment fully determined by fundamentals or is it sometimes affected by stockmarket misvaluation? We introduce three new tests that: measure the reaction of investment to sales shocks for firms that may be overvalued; use Fama-MacBeth regressions to determine whether "overinvestment"...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005572020
In May 1927, the German central bank intervened indirectly to reduce lending to equity investors. The crash that followed ended the only stock market boom during Germany’s relative stabilization 1924-28. This paper examines the factors that lead to the intervention as well as its consequences....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005572613
Is real investment fully determined by fundamentals or is it sometimes affected by stock market misvaluation? We introduce three new tests that: measure the reaction of investment to sales shocks for firms that may be overvalued; use Fama-MacBeth regressions to determine whether "overinvestment"...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005766115
Asset price inflation presents central banks with a puzzle. I examine the case of Germany, 1925-7, when the Reichsbank intervened to bring down stock prices, rectify imbalances and curb speculation. Present value relations, comparisons with historical valuation measures and the time-series...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792124
if there are "bubbles", they may not distort real behaviour if managers base investment decisions on fundamentals. Using … decisions on fundamentals despite stock market bubbles. Three types of collateral evidence reinforce this interpretation. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703888
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010569436
This note uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with direct preferences for financial wealth to explore how stock price booms and busts relate to the real side of the economy. It evaluates the 'speculative' (sunspots) and 'news' (anticipated future changes in productivity)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010658620