Using real financial data, this study examines the influence of trend direction and strength on judgmental exchange rate forecasting performance and consistency. Participants generated forecasts for each of 20 series. Half of the participants also answered two additional questions regarding...

The current paper aims to examine strategic predictions (with forecast horizons greater than six months) via the empirical probability (EP) technique. This technique was proposed initially to examine short-term tactical predictions (with forecast horizons less than three months), as set out in...

Mistrust is a serious problem for organizations. So much has been written about functional biases and misaligned incentives that one wonders how anyone can trust a forecast provider. Well, now we have some studies that shed new light on the factors that can build or impede trust in forecasting....

Good decisions and policy depend on a reasonable degree of foresight; this in turn relies on a forecasting process that is well-integrated with the strategic management of an organization. There is, however, very little research into the forecast process within organizations generally, or...

Forecasting support systems (FSSs) have little value if users distrust the information and advice that they offer. Two experiments were used to investigate: (i) factors that influence the levels of users’ stated trust in advice provided by an FSS, when this advice is provided in the form of...

An experiment is reported which compares directional forecasting performance of experts, novices and simple statistical models over three time horizons on a task involving probabilistic forecasts of exchange rate movements. Probability-judgement accuracy analyses illustrated no clear overall...

‘Quasirationality’ (i.e., the combination of intuitive and analytic thought) is increasingly considered to be widespread and beneficial in management. This paper provides an overview of this concept as it is defined by Cognitive Continuum Theory (Hammond, 1996, 2000), and highlights the...