We introduce a new ‘supply-push’ instrument for foreign aid, to be used together with an instrumental variable estimator that filters out unobserved common factors. We use this instrument to study the effects of aid on macroeconomic ratios, and especially the ratios of consumption,...

This paper develops empirical growth models suitable for dual economies, and studies the relationship between structural change and economic growth. Changes in the structure of employment will raise aggregate productivity when the marginal product of labor varies across sectors. The models in...

The issue of model uncertainty is central to the empirical study of economic growth. Many recent papers use Bayesian Model Averaging to address model uncertainty, but Ciccone and Jarociński (2010) have questioned the approach on theoretical and empirical grounds. They argue that a standard...

The issue of model uncertainty is central to the empirical study of economic growth. Many recent papers use Bayesian Model Averaging to address model uncertainty, but Ciccone and Jarocinski (2010) have questioned the approach on theoretical and empirical grounds. They argue that a standard...

This paper argues that dual economy models deserve a central place in the analysis of growth in developing countries. The paper shows how these models can be used to analyse the output losses associated with factor misallocation, aggregate growth in the presence of factor market distortions,...

The paper discusses three econometric problems that are rarely given adequate discussion in textbooks: model uncertainty, parameter heterogeneity, and outliers. Leamer's extreme bounds analysis can be adapted to address all three problems simultaneously. Two examples are presented based on an...

This paper draws attention to some possible misunderstandings concerning the place of long-run outcomes in growth theory. It argues that the traditional emphasis on these outcomes is often misguided. As a result of this emphasis, too much attention is paid to the role of knife-edge assumptions,...

This paper shows how to calibrate a two-sector general equilibrium model of production using a small number of parameter assumptions and readily available data. The framework is then used to analyze the costs of labor market dualism. The paper quantiÞes the effects of rural-urban wage...

We examine the view that high-quality macroeconomic policy is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for economic growth. We first construct a new index of the quality of macroeconomic policy. We then directly compare growth rate distributions across countries with good and bad policies; use...

This paper argues that dual economy models deserve a central place in the analysis of growth in developing countries. The paper shows how these models can be used to analyze the output losses associated with factor mis-allocation, aggregate growth in the presence of factor market distortions,...