This paper evaluates the use of measures of regional economic activity to forecast tax revenues for New York State and New York City at 3-, 6-, and 12-month horizons. We construct sales- and withholding-tax base series and then apply the methodology of Stock and Watson (1989, 1991) to estimate...

In addition to exacting a tremendous human toll, the September 11 attack on the World Trade Center caused billions of dollars in property damage and a temporary contraction in New York City's economy. This article explores the effect of these events on the longer run economic prospects for the...

We review our earlier studies that estimated the overall economic cost of the 9-11 attacks on New York City. Since the attack took place during a national and local recession, we emphasize the importance of controlling for economic conditions to obtain a precise estimate of the attack's effects....

This paper examines the linkage between economic activity and tax revenues for New York State and New York City. Drawing upon the methodology of Stock and Watson, we use a dynamic single-factor model to estimate indexes of coincident economic indicators. We also construct measures of the sales...

The 2007 slowing in job growth in the New York - New Jersey region continued through August 2008. A projected weakening in the national economy through the end of 2008 combined with the market turmoil affecting New York City's finance sector suggests that the region will post substantially...

The New York-New Jersey region entered a pronounced downturn in 2008, but the pace of decline eased considerably in spring 2009 and then leveled off in July, according to three key Federal Reserve Bank of New York economic indexes. These developments, in conjunction with a growing consensus that...

Although New York City's payroll employment is rising briskly, it still falls short of its 2001 peak, raising concerns that the local economy is not generating enough jobs. However, a look at a broader set of economic indicators-alternative job measures, wage and salary earnings, and a composite...

The attack on the World Trade Center had an enormous financial, as well as emotional, impact on New York City. This article measures the short-term economic effects on the city's labor force and capital stock through June 2002, the end of the recovery process at the World Trade Center site....

The securities industry is more important than ever to the New York City economy, and a protracted downturn in the industry's employment could seriously hurt the overall job picture. Increased stability in other New York City industries, however, could help soften the economic effects of such a...