Using median-unbiased estimation based on Augmented Dickey--Fuller (ADF) regressions, recent research has questioned the validity of Rogoff's ‘remarkable consensus’ of 3--5 year half-lives of deviations from Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). The confidence intervals of these half-life...

Can US monetary policy in the 1970s be described by a stabilizing Taylor rule when policy is evaluated with real-time inflation and output gap data? Using economic research on the full employment level of unemployment and the natural rate of unemployment published between 1970 and 1977 to...

This paper investigates the differences between real-time and ex-post output gap estimates using a newly-constructed international real-time data set over the period from 1973:Q1 to 2012:Q3. We extend the findings in Orphanides and van Norden (2002) for the United States that the use of ex-post...

We propose a new methodology to study the stability of steady-state growth. Long-run GDP per capita can be characterized by: (1) the linear trend hypothesis, where there are no long-run changes in GDP levels or growth rates, (2) the level shift hypothesis, where there are long-run level shifts,...

The Taylor rule has become the dominant model for academic evaluation of out-of-sample exchange rate predictability. Two versions of the Taylor rule model are the Taylor rule fundamentals model, where the variables that enter the Taylor rule are used to forecast exchange rate changes, and the...