This paper analyses two main features of the financialisation period, namely: 1) the replacement of the 'originate and hold' banking model with the 'originate and distribute' banking model; 2) the securitisation process of structured finance products. These features have produced remarkable...

The 2007-2008 global _financial crisis and the subsequent anemic recovery have rekindled academic interest in quantifying the impact of uncertainty on further assume that these common factors affect volatility and economic activity with a time lag of at least a quarter. Under these assumptions,...

The 2007-2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent anemic recovery have rekindled academic interest in quantifying the impact of uncertainty on macroeconomic dynamics. This paper studies the interrelation between financial markets volatility and economic activity assuming that both...

This paper defines business and growth rate cycles and describes the importance of key coincident indicators and reference chronologies, following reflections on the definition of a recession. The robustness of turning point forecasts based on the indicator approach to business and growth rate...

The 2007-2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent anemic recovery have rekindled academic interest in quantifying the impact of uncertainty on macroeconomic dynamics based on the premise that uncertainty causes economic activity to slow down and contract. In this paper, we study the...

This paper employs a statistical approach to identify which sectors of the US economy are currently the most suitable indicators for monitoring the recovery. A comprehensive list of potential leading indicators is constructed through the application of economic theory. By applying a detailed...

The paper is part of a large foresight study carried out by the authors at the HSE Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge for the Russian Ministry of Telecommunication and Mass Communications. It is important that mass communication, with its virtual product is related to...