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The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995: Dynamic Factor Analysis vs. Reconstructed National Accounts
Ritschl, Albrecht; Sarferaz, Samad; Uebele, Martin - Sonderforschungsbereich 649: Ökonomisches Risiko, … - 2008
This paper presents insights on U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867 de- rived from diffusion indices. We employ a … volatility across World War I, which is reversed after World War II. While we can generate evidence of postwar moderation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005678012
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The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995: A Dynamic Factor Approach
Ritschl, Albrecht; Sarferaz, Samad; Uebele, Martin - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008
This paper reexamines U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867. We employ dynamic factor analysis as an alternative to … reconstructed national accounts. We find a remarkable volatility increase across World War I, which is reversed after World War II …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504432
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Time-Frequency Relationship between U.S. Output with Commodity and Asset Prices
Tiwari, Aviral K.; Albulescu, Claudiu T.; Gupta, Rangan - Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and … - 2015
Commodity and asset prices have a well-documented effect on economic growth, manifested through various channels. At the same time, the business cycle influences the commodity and asset prices. Whereas empirical evidence on the effect of commodity and asset prices on the long-run economic growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011267816
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Analyse spectrale de l’évolution de longue période des brevets en France, en Allemagne, en Grande-Bretagne, aux Etats-Unis et au Japon (17ème-20ème siècles).
Diebolt, Claude; Pellier, Karine - Association Française de Cliométrie - AFC - 2008
L’application de l’analyse spectrale au domaine cliométrique a été jusqu’à présente restreinte. Elle est employée ici pour déterminer la périodicité des séries agrégées de brevets de la France, de l’Allemagne, de la Grande-Bretagne et des Etats-Unis. Après avoir rappelé la...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005111523
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The Future of US Economic Growth
Fernald, John G.; Jones, Charles I. - In: American Economic Review 104 (2014) 5, pp. 44-49
Modern growth theory suggests that more than three-quarters of growth since 1950 reflects rising educational attainment and research intensity. As these transition dynamics fade, US economic growth is likely to slow at some point. However, the rise of China, India, and other emerging economies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010773988
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Not Just the Great Contraction: Friedman and Schwartz's A Monetary History of the United States 1867 to 1960
Bordo, Michael D.; Rockoff, Hugh - In: American Economic Review 103 (2013) 3, pp. 61-65
Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz published A Monetary History of the United States: 1867 to 1960 with Princeton University Press in 1963, to critical acclaim. Since then the book's reputation has grown and it clearly has become one of the most influential volumes in economics in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010659359
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Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater during Periods of Slack? Evidence from Twentieth-Century Historical Data
Owyang, Michael T.; Ramey, Valerie A.; Zubairy, Sarah - In: American Economic Review 103 (2013) 3, pp. 129-34
A key question that has arisen during recent debates is whether government spending multipliers are larger during times when resources are idle. This paper seeks to shed light on this question by analyzing new quarterly historical data covering multiple large wars and depressions in the United...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010659398
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International and historical dimensions of the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008
Dwyer, Gerald P.; Lothian, James R. - In: Journal of International Money and Finance 31 (2012) 1, pp. 1-9
This article provides an interpretative overview of the papers in this special issue of JIMF devoted to international aspects of the 2007–2009 financial crisis. It then goes on to provide additional empirical evidence of two sorts. The first documents the difference between the monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010577044
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The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices: A Reappraisal
Arezki, Rabah; Lederman, Daniel; Zhao, Hongyan - CESifo - 2011
This paper studies the volatility of commodity prices on the basis of a large dataset of monthly prices observed in … evidence does not actually attempt to measure the volatility of prices of individual goods or commodities. The literature tends … to focus on trends in the evolution and volatility of ratios of price indexes composed of multiple commodities and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009391720
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The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices: A re-appraisal
Arezki, Rabah; Lederman, Daniel; Zhao, Hongyan - Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource-Rich … - 2012
This paper studies the volatility of commodity prices on the basis of a large dataset of monthly prices observed in … evidence does not actually attempt to measure the volatility of prices of individual goods or commodities. The literature tends … to focus on trends in the evolution and volatility of ratios of price indexes composed of multiple commodities and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010630851