The economics profession appears to have been unaware of the long build-up to the current worldwide financial crisis and to have significantly underestimated its dimensions once it started to unfold. In our view, this lack of understanding is due to a misallocation of research efforts in...

The economics profession appears to have been unaware of the long build-up to the current worldwide financial crisis and to have significantly underestimated its dimensions once it started to unfold. In our view, this lack of understanding is due to a misallocation of research efforts in...

The economics profession appears to have been unaware of the long build-up to the current worldwide financial crisis and to have significantly underestimated its dimensions once it started to unfold. In our view, this lack of understanding is due to a misallocation of research efforts in...

In the past decades, risk management in the financial community has been dominated by data-intensive statistical methods which rely on short historical time series to estimate future risk. Many observers consider this approach as a contributor to the current financial crisis, as a long period of...

This study models maximum temperatures in Switzerland monitored in twelve locations using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of the GEV distribution are determined within a Bayesian framework. We find that the parameters of the underlying distribution underwent a...

A dynamic version of discrete choice theory is presented in order to enable the explicit analysis of the interaction between the micro- and the macro-level of social systems. Suppliers in a cartel market face a social dilemma. They are modelled as boundedly rational decision makers with limited...

By providing financial security against droughts, floods, tropical cyclones and other forms of weather extremes, insurance instruments present an opportunity for developing countries in their concurrent efforts to reduce poverty and adapt to climate change. By pricing risk, insurance provides...

Crime and violence inflict high costs on the private sector—costs that are rising globally, according to the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys, discussions with chambers and associations, and the Bank’s Country Partnership Strategies, which reference the losses in terms of gross domestic...

This paper discusses the I(2) model with breaks in the deterministic component and illustrates the model with an analysis of German and US prices, exchange rates, and interest rates in the period 1975-1999. It provides new results on the likelihood ratio test of overidentifying restrictions on...