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The Equilibrium Rate of Unemployment and the Real Exchange Rate: An Unobserved Components System Approach
Lindblad, Hans; Sellin, Peter - Sveriges Riksbank - 2003
. Our results show that the Natural Rate/NAIRU has increased by approximately 1.5 percentage points since the 1970s, driven …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423757
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A Simultaneous Model of the Swedish Krona, the US Dollar and the Euro
Lindblad, Hans; Sellin, Peter - Sveriges Riksbank - 2006
In this paper we simultaneously estimate the real exchange rates between the Swedish Krona, the US Dollar and the Euro. A prime candidate for explaining the exchange rate movements is relative potential output. Since this variable is unobservable, cyclical and potential output are estimated in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005190802
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Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand up?
Franz, Wolfgang - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) - 2003
" (NAIRU) for Germany. There are quite a few obstacles to perceiving the NAIRU as an understandable and easy-to-use analytical …, cointegration issues, and a time variability of the NAIRU and its confidence intervals. Despite many serious caveats a new attempt … is made to estimate a NAIRU for Germany based on conventional Phillips curves as well as on new approaches such as using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005097479
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Testing Steady-State Implications for the NAIRU
Bårdsen, Gunnar; Nymoen, Ragnar - Institutt for Samfunnsøkonomi, Norges … - 2000
Estimates of the NAIRU are usually derived either from a Phillips curve or from a wage curve. This paper investigates … the correspondence between the operational NAIRU-concepts and the steady state of a dynamic wage-price model. We derive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005573916
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Is the NAIRU More Useful in Forecasting Inflation than the Natural Rate of Unemployment?
Claar, Victor V - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2002
Recent studies have indicated that the terms 'NAIRU' (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) and 'natural … rate of unemployment' are not interchangeable. While NAIRU is an empirical macroeconomic relationship estimated via a … natural rate of unemployment relative to the NAIRU. The natural rate of unemployment in the USA since the Second World War is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005835658
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U.S. natural rate dynamics reconsidered
Bårdsen, Gunnar; Nymoen, Ragnar - Økonomisk institutt, Universitetet i Oslo - 2006
Several features of the U.S. natural rate of unemployment are reconsidered through specification and testing of econometric models. Traditionally, the choice has been between a wage Phillips curve model, PCM, or an equilibrium correction wage curve model, WECM. The models proposed in this paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005198069
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Estimating Nairu for the Turkish Economy Using Extended Kalman Filter Approach
Us, Vuslat - Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası - 2014
This paper estimates NAIRU (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) for the Turkish economy as an unobserved … unemployment gap, the systems approach imposes stochastic laws of motion for NAIRU and potential output and also assumes the … problem introduces nonlinearity, which requires the use of Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). Estimation results suggest that NAIRU …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010941465
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The Concept, Policy Use and Measurement of Structural Unemployment: Estimating a Time Varying NAIRU Across 21 OECD Countries
Richardson, Pete; Boone, Laurence; Giorno, Claude; … - Economics Department, Organisation de Coopération et … - 2000
The structural rate of unemployment and associated non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (the NAIRU) are of … representing the NAIRU as currently used by the OECD in its policy analysis and surveillance work. Three distinct classes of NAIRU … applied ...<BR><P>Les concepts de taux de chômage structurel et NAIRU (<I>non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005046182
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Misalignment under different exchange rate regimes: the case of Turkey
Dağdeviren, Sengül; Ogus Binatli, Ayla; Sohrabji, Niloufer - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2011
The paper examines misalignment of the Turkish lira between 1998 to 2008. Misalignment, specifically overvaluation has been linked to fixed exchange rate regimes. By studying the case of Turkey during this period which covers both a fixed and floating exchange rate regime, we contribute to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011111300
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Оценивание равновесного реального обменного курса российского рубля
Shumilov, Andrei; Sosunov, Kirill - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2005
Following methodological approach proposed by Edwards, the paper estimates empirically Russia's equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) for the period 1995–2003. ERER is defined as the relative price of non-tradables to tradables consistent with the simultaneous achievement of internal and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011259205