The paper estimates currency risk premia for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Three different approaches are applied: a constant premium approach based on rational expectations, while time-varying premia are estimated with a method using financial market analysts’ surveys and...

A number of studies have used survey data on traders' exchange rate forecasts to examine the role of risk and non-REH forecasting in accounting for excess returns in currency markets. This work re-examines those results using an alternative estimation technique, the Cointegrated VAR, which...

Using Consensus Economics survey data on experts' expectations, we aim to model the 3- and 12-month ahead ex-ante risk premia on the Yen/USD and the British Pound/USD exchange markets. For each market and at a given horizon, we show that the risk premium is well determined by the conditional...

Using Consensus Economics survey data on experts’ expectations, we aim to model the 3- and 12-month ahead ex-ante risk premia on the JPY/USD and the GBP/USD exchange markets. For each market and at a given horizon, we show that the risk premium is well determined by the conditional expected...

In this essay I've demonstrated that there is evidence of unstable and non-linear relationship between fundamental variables and exchange rates. I have tried to "tune" Frankel's (1979) real interest differential model of exchange rate fluctuation. I have distinguished between Czech crown/Euro...

In the empirical literature, not much support is found for the uncovered interest parity. Especially with free floating exchange rates, the forward rate is a biased predictor of the future exchange rate. This phenomenon can both be explained by an absence of rational expectations or by risk...

This study tests several models of the currency risk premium, but does so using survey data on traders' forecasts to directly measure the expected excess return. Among those tested are UIP, CAPM, and the Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE) gap model, which respectively imply that the premium is...

This paper is designed to review the empirical literature on the excess returns puzzle: the difficulty encountered by standard risk premium models in accounting for relative returns in the foreign exchange market. Of particular interest are the studies using survey data to decompose ex post...

This paper tests the ex ante implications of Frydman and Goldberg's Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE) gap model in such a way as to overcome the endogeneity bias and data restrictions of previous work. The IKE gap model relates the expected excess return (measured here through survey data for...

Using ten years of FX transactions data we demonstrate that a large share of the FX forward discount bias can be accounted for by order flow. A simple microstructure-based decomposition suggests that order flow creates a timevarying risk premium that is correlated with the forward discount. The...