In the empirical literature, not much support is found for the uncovered interest parity. Especially with free floating exchange rates, the forward rate is a biased predictor of the future exchange rate. This phenomenon can both be explained by an absence of rational expectations or by risk...

This paper considers popular methods for the quantification of survey expectations.We investigate the asymptotic properties of two variants of the probability approach originally suggested by Carlson and Parkin (1975). It is argued that the traditionalmethod can be interpreted as an instrumental...

Qualitative surveys enjoy huge popularity among business cycle analysts and research institutes since they provide fast information on the stance of the economy. However, in order to derive quantitative statements researchers have to rely on assumptions about the relation between quantitative...

Does survey data contain useful information for estimating macroeconomic models? We address this question by using survey data of inflation expectations to estimate the New Keynesian model by Smets and Wouters (2007) and compare its performance under rational expectations and adaptive learning....

This paper relaxes a fundamental hypothesis commonly accepted in the expectation formation literature: expectations are, unchangingly, either rational or generated by one of the three simple extrapolative, regressive or adaptive processes. Using expectations survey data provided by Consensus...

This paper investigates the time-varying nature of expectation formation rules for institutional investors in the foreign exchange market. Using a dataset of survey expectations for four exchange rates, we first distinguish three different general rules. We find a momentum rule, a fundamental...

The rational expectations hypothesis is one of the cornerstones of current economic theorizing. This review discusses a number of experiments that focus on expectation formation by human subjects in a number of learning-to-forecast experiments and analyzes the implications for the rational...