Inspired by findings of low–dimensional nonlinearities and the Theorem of Takens (1983) forecasting models of financial time series are often built upon nonparametric, i.e. universal nonlinear, univariate relationships. Empirical investigations, however, are seriously contaminated by the...

The paper proposes an algorithm that uses forecast encompassing tests for combining forecasts. The algorithm excludes a forecast from the combination if it is encompassed by another forecast. To assess the usefulness of this approach, an extensive empirical analysis is undertaken using a U.S....

We focus on rating of non-life insurance contracts. We employ multiplicative models with basic premium levels and specific surcharge coefficients for various levels of selected risk/rating factors. We use generalized linear models (GLM) to describe the probability distribution of total losses...

The Internet is growing rapidly in terms of both use and infrastructure. Unfortunately, demand is outpacing the capacity of the infrastructure, as evidenced by unacceptably long response times. To support current load and further growth, we must address this problem. Several caching strategies...

The paper analyses, by applying a system of optimization models for cash flow analysis and forecasting, how effective a transfer of a part of the power generating capacities from gas to coal would be. We present a scenario analysis assuming both an increase of a gas export under a deficit of the...

In diesem Beitrag wird der Frage nachgegangen, inwieweit Optimierungsansätze wie lineare Programmierungsmodelle geeignet sind, bessere Entscheidungen als reale Entscheider zu treffen. Auch beleuchtet werden Unterschiede im Entscheidungsverhalten und in den Produktionsstrategien. Dazu lassen wir...

In this paper, a model that assists developers to evaluate and compare alternative reuse scenarios in software product line (SPL) development systematically in proposed. The model can identify basic activities (abstracted as operations) and precisely relate cost and reliability with each basic...

This technical note is divided into two parts. The first one investigates the necessity to explicitly incorporate spills into reservoir optimization models based on linear or nonlinear programming and presents a scheme to accomplish this task. The second part shows how reservoir optimization...

The identification of unknown pollution sources is a prerequisite for designing of a remediation strategy. In most of the real world situations, it is difficult to identify the pollution sources without a scientifically designed efficient monitoring network. The locations of the contaminant...

Multi-reservoir operation planning is a complex task involving many variables, objectives, and decisions. This paper applies a hybrid method using genetic algorithm (GA) and linear programming (LP) developed by the authors to determine operational decisions for a reservoir system over the...