We analyse the sources of the decline of business cycle volatility in the UK using a dynamic factor model that allows for the presence of a structural break in the conditional mean and variance of output, sales, income and unemployment. We augment the factor model with an economic component to...

The stochastic pooling problem is a type of stochastic mixed-integer bilinear program arising in the integrated design and operation of various important industrial networks, such as gasoline blending, natural gas production and transportation, water treatment, etc. This paper presents a...

This paper focuses on deriving optimal refill rules for a multi-purpose reservoir, and aims to maximize utilization benefits under the condition of flood control safety. The entire flood season is divided into multiple sub-seasons (i.e. pre-flood season, main-flood season and post-flood season)....

This paper presents a numerical stability analysis of a multi-phase car-following model under mild to severe disturbances. The results show that local stability was always conformed. An asymptotically unstable region was found for traffic in congested states. One of the previously calibrated...

Synchronization in different types of weighted networks based on a scale-free weighted network model is investigated. It has been argued that heterogeneity suppresses synchronization in unweighted networks [T. Nishikawa, A.E. Motter, Y.C. Lai, F.C. Hoppensteadt, Phys. Rev. Lett. 91 (2003)...

The expected returns for securities are traditionally estimated as crisp values. Since the improper values may bring on an unsuccessful investment decision, portfolio experts generally prefer offering interval estimations for expected returns rather than crisp ones. The portfolio selection...

This paper presents a study of variations of fuel consumption and emissions of vehicles due to random street crossings of pedestrians. The pedestrian and vehicle movement models as well as the interaction model between the two entities are presented. Extensive numerical simulations of single and...

Optimal release time determination is a typical application of software reliability models. In this decision process, reliability and cost are the two important dimensions that are generally considered. Most existing research formulates this decision process as single-objective optimization...