In this article, we evaluate two types of Swedish policy interest-rate expectations: survey expectations and expectations inferred from market pricing. The data are drawn from the most prominent survey of financial-market economists and from Swedish financial markets, and they are carefully...

We test for the presence of a unit root in U.S. GDP and CPI, allowing for non-linear trend reversion under the alternative hypothesis. In contrast to most previous results, we find evidence in favour of trend stationarity for both variables.

Nominal interest rates are unlikely to be generated by unit-root processes. Using data on short and long interest rates from eight developed and six emerging economies, we test the expectations hypothesis using cointegration methods under the assumption that interest rates are near integrated....

We estimate the path of inflation persistence in the United States over the last fifty years using an ARMA model of inflation with time-varying autoregressive parameter, motivated by the familiar New Keynesian framework. The estimated path of inflation persistence is consistent with a general...

This paper estimates the path of inflation persistence in the United States over the last 50 years and draws implications about the evolution of the Federal Reserve's monetary-policy preferences. Standard models of central bank optimization predict that the central bank's preference for output...

Nominal interest rates are unlikely to be generated by unit-root processes. Using data on short and long interest rates from eight developed and six emerging economies, we test the expectations hypothesis using cointegration methods under the assumption that interest rates are near integrated....

Inflation targeting as a monetary-policy regime is widely associated with an explicit numerical target for the rate of inflation. This paper investigates whether the forecasting performance of Bayesian autoregressive models can be improved by incorporating information about the target. We...

This paper presents a small model of the Australian macroeconomy. The model is empirically based, aggregate in nature and consists of five estimated equations – for non-farm output, the real exchange rate, import prices, unit labour costs and consumer prices. The stylised facts underlying each...

This paper investigates how inflation persistence in the Euro area has evolved between 1991 and 2006. Employing an ARMA(1,11) model with time-varying autoregressive parameter, we find that inflation persistence has fallen markedly since the third stage of the EMU began in January 1999 and...

This article applies a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with informative steady-state priors to a parsimonious model of the Australian economy. The model captures economic linkages among key Australian and US variables and is estimated on quarterly data from 1985 to 2006. An out-of-sample...