Using a uniquely constructed loan-level dataset of the residential mortgage book of Irish financial institutions, this paper provides a framework for estimating default probabilities of individual mort- gages. In contrast to the popular stock delinquency approach, this model provides estimates...

Recently, some notable contributions suggest, that discretionary fiscal policy can be an effective and self- financing policy option in the presence of extreme macroeconomic conditions. Given the special relationship between the Irish sovereign and its main financial institutions, this paper...

The high level of mortgage arrears in the Irish financial system and the associated overhang on economic growth underlines the importance of prudent lending standards throughout the property cycle. Macro-prudential tools such as loan-to-value (LTV) ratio caps and loan-to-income (LTI) ratio caps...

This paper examines the role of credit and the macroeconomy in SME distress during a pro- longed economic downturn. Specically, we estimate the determinants of SME distress in Ireland during the severe financial and economic crisis which began in 2007/2008. We use a measure of dis- tress,...

The rapid increase in credit in an economy is now commonly perceived to be one of the leading indicators of financial instability. This view has been reinforced by the aftermath of the international financial crisis, which commenced in mid-2007. A key policy response has been to focus on the...

Understanding the true scale of the difficulties in the Irish mortgage market is of key importance from a financial stability, fiscal and social perspective. To date, much of the analysis and discussion of the Irish market has tended to focus on either the concept of mortgage repayment distress...

Using a uniquely constructed loan-level dataset of the residential mortgage book of Irish financial institutions, this paper provides a framework for estimating default probabilities of individual mortgages. In particular, the paper examines the progression of mortgages in arrears from 90 days...

The income velocity of circulation has been subject to a trend decline in all the member states of the European Monetary Union since its inception. In this paper, we propose an explanation for this in terms of a measure of the ECB’s inflation fighting credibility. This credibility gain...