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Forecaster overconfidence and market survey performance
Deaves, Richard; Lei, Jin; Schröder, Michael - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) - 2015
We document using the ZEW panel of German stock market forecasters that weak forecasters tend to be overconfident in the sense that they provide extreme forecasts and their confidence intervals are less likely to contain eventual realizations. Moderate filters based on forecast accuracy over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011269118
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Does Human Psychology Drive Financial Markets? Evidence from International Markets
Dhaoui, Abderrazak; Khraief, Naceur - In: International Journal of Economics and Empirical … 2 (2014) 3, pp. 100-108
This paper provides the first evidence for empirical tests of the effect of rational expectations as well as behavioral biases, including among other animal spirits such as defined by Akerlof and Shiller (2009) on the variability of trading.We have used daily data for five international capital...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010902142
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An Experimental Study of Overconfidence in Accounting Numbers Predictions
Bar-Yosef, Sasson; Venezia, Itzhak - In: International Journal of Economic Sciences 2014 (2014) 1, pp. 78-89
This paper analyzes experimentally investors' overconfidence when making predictions of financial and accounting … overconfidence. We also compare the extent to which professional analysts differ from other investors in that respect. For this we … overconfidence. The professional analysts were slightly more overconfident than the students. Subjects showed more overconfidence in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011195081
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THE IMPACT OF INVESTOR PSYCHOLOGY ON STOCK MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM FRANCE
DHAOUI, ABDERRAZAK; BOUROUIS, SAAD; BOYACIOGLU, MELEK ACAR - In: Journal of Academic Research in Economics 5 (2013) 1 (June), pp. 35-59
This paper provides the first evidence for empirical sensitivity of trading volume to human psychological factors. We review therefore extensive evidence about how human psychology affects investor behavior and trading volume. Using the data for individual stocks listed on the CAC40 Stock Market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010692156
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Improving prediction of stock market indices by analyzing the psychological states of twitter users
Porshnev, Alexander; Redkin, Ilya; Shevchenko, Alexey - National Research University Higher School of Economics - 2013
In our paper, we analyze the possibility of improving the prediction of stock market indicators by conducting a sentiment analysis of Twitter posts. We use a dictionary-based approach for sentiment analysis, which allows us to distinguish eight basic emotions in the tweets of users. We compare...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010723284
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A válság mint negatív információ és bizonytalansági tényező. A válság hatása az egy részvényre jutó nyereség-előrejelzésekre
Jáki, Erika - In: Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the … LX (2013) 12, pp. 1357-1369
A szerző a 2008-ban kezdődött gazdasági világválság hatását vizsgálja az egy részvényre jutó nyereség előrejelzésének hibájára. Számos publikáció bizonyította, hogy az elemzők a tényértékeknél szisztematikusan kedvezőbb tervértéket adnak meg az egy részvényre...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010963077
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Measuring the Behavioral Component of Financial Fluctuations: An Analysis Based on the S&P 500
Caporin, Massimiliano; Corazzini, Luca; Costola, Michele - School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus - 2014
We study the evolution of the behavioral component of the financial market by estimating a Bayesian mixture model in which two types of investors coexist: one rational, with standard subjective expected utility theory (SEUT) preferences, and one behavioral, endowed with an S-shaped utility...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010932898
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Building Castles in the Air: Evidence from Industry IPO Waves
Jagannathan, Ravi; Da, Zhi; Shen, Jianfeng - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012
We provide empirical support for the conventional wisdom that there are times when optimistic investors tend to build their hopes into castles in the air, and pay a large premium over intrinsic value for stocks of firms in the early stages of their life cycles with perceived growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951370
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Predicting forecast errors through joint observation of earnings and revenue forecasts
Henderson, Brian J.; Marks, Joseph M. - In: Journal of Banking & Finance 37 (2013) 11, pp. 4265-4277
We propose a simple method to infer the forecast error associated with quarterly estimates of earnings and revenue before the firm announces realized earnings and revenue. The method uses estimates of the profit margin implied by an analyst’s forecasts of both earnings and revenue to identify...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010703244
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Collateral Valuation and Borrower Financial Constraints: Evidence from the Residential Real Estate Market
Agarwal, Sumit; Ben-David, Itzhak; Yao, Vincent - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
Financially constrained borrowers have the incentive to influence the appraisal process in order to increase borrowing or reduce the interest rate. We document that the average valuation bias for residential refinance transactions is above 5%. The bias is larger for highly leveraged...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010703331