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Experience of technological and natural disasters and their impact on the perceived risk of nuclear accidents after the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan 2011: A cross-country an...

Yamamura, Eiji - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2011

experience of such disasters affects the perception of the risk of nuclear accidents. Estimation results show that the perceived … risk of a nuclear accident is positively associated with experiencing technological disasters but not with that of natural …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009132730

Experience of technological and natural disasters and their impact on the perceived risk of nuclear accidents after the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan 2011: A cross-country an...

Yamamura, Eiji - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009652029

Bayesian learning and expectations formation: Anything goes

Albert, Max - Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Universität Konstanz - 1996

The paper proves that the Bayesian approach to learning and expectations formation implies no propositions that could conceivably be refuted by observation. For a (non-expanding) universe infinite in time but finite at any point of time, it is shown that by a suitable choice of priors, any...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010956859

Belief shocks and the macroeconomy.

Suda, J. - Banque de France - 2013

I study the role of shocks to beliefs combined with Bayesian learning in a standard equilibrium business cycle framework. By adapting ideas from Cogley and Sargent (2008b) to the general equilibrium setting, I am able to study how a prior belief arising from the Great Depression may have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010816021

Expectations formation and stability of large socioeconomic systems

GRANDMONT, Jean-Michel - Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), … - 1997

This paper attemps to identify, in a framework deliberately stripped of unnecessary technical- ities, some of the basic reasons why adaptive learning may or may not lead to stability and convergence to self-fulfilling expectations in large socioeconomic systems where no agent, or collection of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005043711

Learning, Quantal Response Equilibrium and Equilibrium in Beliefs

Nyarko, Y. - C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, Department of … - 2001

This paper makes two points. First, the modeling used in the rational (or Bayesian) learning literature can be generalized to handle the repeated shocks to preferences inherent and implicit in models of quantal response equilibria (QRE). In particular, we note that the Bayesian model and the QRE...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005611707

Diverse Beliefs and Time Variability of Risk Premia

Kurz, Mordecai; Motolese, Maurizio - Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research … - 2007

This work presents a theoretical and empirical evaluation of the role of market belief in the structure of risk premia …. Our main result is that fluctuations in market belief are large contributors to the time variability of risk premia. On … average, the risk premium on holding Federal Funds Futures and 3-month and 6-month Treasury Bills for 6-12 months is about 40 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010616128

A Paradox of Environmental Awareness Campaigns

Koulovatianos, Christos - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010

We build a workable game of common-property resource extraction under rational Bayesian learning about the renewal prospects of a resource. We uncover the impact of exogenously shifting the prior beliefs of each player on the response functions of others. What we find about the role of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008753059

Strategic Exploitation of a Common-Property Resource Under Rational Learning About its Reproduction

Koulovatianos, Christos - Centre de Recherche en Économie Appliquée (CREA), … - 2014

We build a workable game of common-property resource extraction under rational Bayesian learning about the reproduction prospects of a resource. We focus on Markov-perfect strate- gies under truthful revelation of beliefs. For reasonable initial conditions, exogenously shif- ting the prior...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011095237

Learning about an Infrequent Event: Evidence from Flood Insurance Take-Up in the United States

Gallagher, Justin - In: American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 6 (2014) 3, pp. 206-33

I examine the learning process that economic agents use to update their expectation of an uncertain and infrequently observed event. I use a new nation-wide panel dataset of large regional floods and flood insurance policies to show that insurance take-up spikes the year after a flood and then...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010815888

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