Previous studies have found evidence for the belief that actions which tempt fate increase the likelihood of negative outcomes. These included actions that presuppose a good outcome, that reflect hubris or that involve excessive risk taking. This paper explores a related form of magical thinking...

The tempting fate effect is that the probability of a fateful outcome is deemed higher following an action that ``tempts'' the outcome than in the absence of such an action. In this paper we evaluate the hypothesis that the effect is due to an illusion of control induced by a causal framing of...

When a threat looms large in people's minds, they may seek protective measures that could mitigate the negative outcomes associated with this threat. Paradoxically, the possession of such protective measures may, in turn, inspire a sense of safety and reduce the perceived probability of the very...

We provide axiomatic foundations for a simple model of play in the prisoners’ dilemma. The model accommodates cooperation and suggests that players behave as if their expectations about their opponents’ behavior vary with their own choice. We refer to this nonstandard updating as magical...

Nearly half the currency notes in circulation in Nigeria today has lost its wholeness to one form of mutilation or another due to superstitious beliefs. Statistics have shown that 98.0% of the disfigurement of the naira is (deliberately) caused by superstitious belief, while only 0.2% is due to...

Magical thinking refers to irrational peculiar beliefs, including those that conform to the laws of contagion. We propose that touching an object that was previously touched by a high performer increases confidence via magical thinking (ability contagion) and improves actual performance among...