Despite the common reliance on numerical probability estimates in decision research and decision analysis, there is … considerable interest in the use of verbal probability expressions to communicate opinion. A method is proposed for obtaining and …. Response mode and payoff never interacted. Probability scores and their components were virtually identical for the two …

hypotheses: (1) the confidence heuristic holds that more confidence increases credibility, and (2) the calibration hypothesis … asserts that overconfidence will backfire when others find out. Study 1 reveals that, consistent with the calibration …, accuracy, and calibration influence others. …

(i) judgments of probability, which are assumed to satisfy support theory; and (ii) decisions under risk, which are … assumed to satisfy prospect theory. In two experiments, subjects evaluated uncertain prospects and assessed the probability of …

makers' mental representations of the alternatives, measured with both verbal and nonverbal judgment probes. We found that …, however, remained even when accounting for this judgment distortion and the effects of sampling bias. Indeed, participants … derive from a process that does not explicitly use probability information. …

not certain into numeric probability values. This probabilistic translation approach can be contrasted with a novel which …-outcome (WO) approach that focuses on the outcomes that people naturally associate with probability terms. The WO approach has … probability term and outcome was related to the association of scalar modifiers (i.e., it is certain that the battery will last at …

Previous research demonstrates overestimation of rare events in judgment tasks, and underweighting of rare events in … mechanisms: judgment error and the use of small samples in choice. Implications for the two-stage choice model are discussed. …