uncertainty is closely related to the output growth uncertainty. In forming expectations, individual forecasters seem to behave …

. Revisions of expectations generally lead to larger forecast errors. Subjective uncertainty measures, which are available at the … time of forecasting, are useful in assessing future forecast errors. …

uncertainty is closely related to the output growth uncertainty. In forming expectations, individual forecasters seem to behave …

This paper examines aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF). We … not cause systematic distortions to aggregated survey information. However, micro level analysis of expectations would …

This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed … from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation … Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other indicators of inflation expectations – 36 survey measures and the TIPS …

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … Michigan Surveys of Consumers. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data …

Recent empirical work documents substantial disagreement in inflation expectations obtained from survey data …

evidence that the Phillips curves’ goodness of fit is rather high. However, forecasting power is comparatively low. …