Analysts’ forecasting of earnings per share for multiple quarter time horizons of eleven agribusiness companies is evaluated using a mean absolute scaled error and a direct test. Results illustrate that unique information is consistently found. Rational and efficient expectations are formed...

This article presents a general method for pricing weather derivatives. Specification tests find that a temperature series for Fresno, CA follows a mean-reverting Brownian motion process with discrete jumps and autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic errors. Based on this process, we define...

The marginal forecast information contained in deferred futures prices is evaluated using the direct test of Vuchelen and Gutierrez. In particular, the informational role of deferred futures contracts in live cattle and hogs is assessed from the two- to twelve-month horizons. The results...

Conventional wisdom suggests the local cash - futures basis is determined from local supply and demand conditions. However, it may be the case that local elevators look to other locations, such as terminal locations, and adjust for transportation differentials when determining the basis for...

The traditional necessary condition for futures market inefficiency is the existence of alternative forecasting methods that produce mean squared forecast errors smaller than the futures market. Here, a more exacting requirement for futures market efficiency is proposed-forecast encompassing....

This research presents a systematic and unified approach to evaluating forecast rationality that considers the potential of nonstationarity in forecasts and realized values. The approach is applied to one-quarter ahead U.S. Department of Agriculture livestock price forecasts from 1982 through...

Conditional efficiency or forecast encompassing is tested among alternative pork production forecasts using the method proposed by Harvey and Newbold. One-, two-, and three-quarter ahead pork production forecasts made by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the University of...

The traditional necessary condition for futures market inefficiency is the existence of alternative forecasting methods that produce mean squared forecast errors smaller than the futures market. Here, a more exacting requirement for futures market efficiency is proposed-forecast encompassing....

An empirical methodology is developed for statistically testing the hedging effectiveness among competing futures contracts. The presented methodology is based on the encompassing principle, widely used in the forecasting literature, and applied here to minimum variance hedging regressions....

An empirical methodology is developed for statistically testing the hedging effectiveness among competing futures contracts. The presented methodology is based on the encompassing principle, widely used in the forecasting literature, and applied here to minimum variance hedging regressions....