This volume – Predicting Crisis: Five Essays on the Mathematic Prediction of Economic and Social Crises – is the first of three sets of essays. In this first set the economic and social history of the United States is shown to be a “system of movement,” i.e. a logical and mathematic...

In this note, we consider a multisector macroeconomic model under oligopolistic competition. We analyze the effect of an increase of the number of sectors on equilibrium price and on allocations, when the number of oligopolits of each type is constant. We also show that a tax policy has more...

This paper shows that in macroeconomic models of product differentiation that are built on CES utility specifications the widely used assumption of approximating cross price effects to zero, (since Dixit-Stiglitz 1979), plays indeed no crucial role. This is true not only when a large number of...

The present paper concerns the microeconomic basis for the macroeconomic demand constraint in the form of the Keynesian demand price constraint: taking Say into account denoted by the extended Keynesian demand price constraint. Price flexibility at a scale sufficient for the working of the...

In this note, we consider a multisector macroeconomic model under oligopolistic competition. We analyze the effect of an increase of the number of sectors on equilibrium price and on allocations, when the number of oligopolits of each type is constant. We also show that a tax policy has more...

We construct shock elasticities that are pricing counterparts to impulse response functions. Recall that impulse response functions measure the importance of next-period shocks for future values of a time series. Shock elasticities measure the contributions to the price and to the expected...

This paper provides evidence on the behavior of reservation wages over the spell of unemployment using high‐frequency longitudinal data. Using data from our survey of unemployed workers in New Jersey, where workers were interviewed each week for up to 24 weeks, we find that self‐reported...

We solve the stochastic neoclassical growth model, the workhorse of modern macroeconomics, using C++11, Fortran 2008, Java, Julia, Python, Matlab, Mathematica, and R. We implement the same algorithm, value function iteration with grid search, in each of the languages. We report the execution...

This chapter discusses different approaches pursued to explore three broad questions related to technology diffusion: what general patterns characterize the diffusion of technologies, and how have they changed over time; what are the key drivers of technology, and what are the macroeconomic...

There is a demand for safe assets, either government bonds or private substitutes, for use as collateral. Government bonds are safe assets, given the government's power to tax, but their supply is driven by fiscal considerations, and does not necessarily meet the private demand for safe assets....