Prediction of demand is a key component within supply chain management. Improved accuracy in forecasts directly affects all levels of the supply chain, reducing stock costs and increasing customer satisfaction. In many application areas, demand prediction relies on statistical software which...

The most recent three issues of Foresight featured Steve Morlidge’s encyclopedic rendition of “Guiding Principles” for an organization’s forecasting process. The guiding principles were divided into five classifications: Foundation Principles, Design Principles, Process Principles,...

A major problem for many organisational forecasters is to choose the appropriate forecasting method for a large number of data series. Model selection aims to identify the best method of forecasting for an individual series within the data set. Various selection rules have been proposed in order...

The paper reports a study of the impact on user satisfaction and forecast accuracy of user involvement in the design of a forecasting decision support system (FDSS). Two versions of an FDSS were tested via a laboratory study. Version 1, allowed the user control over all aspects of the system...

The major purpose of studies of forecasting accuracy is to help forecasters select the 'best' forecasting method. This paper examines accuracy studies in particular that of Makridakis et al. [20] with a view to establishing how they contribute to model choice. It is concluded that they affect...

Empirical research suggests that quantitatively derived forecasts are very frequently judgementally adjusted. Nevertheless, little work has been conducted to evaluate the performance of these judgemental adjustments in a practical demand/sales context. In addition, the relevant analysis does not...

Goodwin and Fildes comment on the issue 14 Foresight article by Orrell and McSharry, A Systems Approach to Forecasting, part of a special feature entitled Rethinking the Ways We Forecast Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009

Forecasting researchers, with few exceptions, have ignored the current major forecasting controversy: global warming and the role of climate modelling in resolving this challenging topic. In this paper, we take a forecaster's perspective in reviewing established principles for validating the...