This paper studies the role of credit market development in an economy with credit frictions. I examine how the provision of credit in connection with collateral assets affects both economic performance and business cycle volatility. First, I analyse the macroeconomic implications of an...

We examine a trivariate time series model that is subject to a regime switch, where the shifts are governed by an unobserved, two-state variable that follows a Markov process. The analysis is performed in a Bayesian framework developed by Albert and Chib (1993), where the unobserved states are...

An extensive literature has analyzed the implications of hidden shifts in the dividend growth rate. However, corresponding research on learning about growth persistence is completely lacking. Hidden persistence is a novel way to introduce long-run risk into standard business-cycle models of...

We embed Max Weber (1958)'s spirit of capitalism (SOC) into an otherwise standard Lucas' tree asset pricing model, by assuming that economic agents care about their social status and that the latter is related to financial wealth. We show that, absent uncertainty, for a wide range of values for...

The asset pricing model with external habit formation predicts that the equity premium depends on consumption changes relative to the habit level, implying a response that varies over the business cycle. We test this implication using a VAR model of the U.S. postwar economy whose time-varying...

ABSTRACT This article investigates the relationship between ex-post Equity Risk Premium (ERP) on the Colombian stock market and the economic cycles observed in the country using methodologies based on the Hodrick-Prescott and Kalman filters. Accordingly, a short-term econometric model is put...

Este artículo presenta una revisión de la relación entre la prima por riesgo ex post del mercado accionario y los ciclos económicos observados en Colombia recurriendo a la metodología Hodrick-Prescott. Con información trimestral desde el cuarto trimestre de 2001 al tercer trimestre de...

Rietz (1988) and Barro (2006) subject consumption and dividends to rare disasters in the growth rate. We extend their framework and subject consumption and dividends to rare disasters in the growth persistence. Wemodel growth persistence by means of two hidden types of economic slowdowns:...

An extensive literature has analyzed the implications of hidden shifts in the dividend growth rate. However, corresponding research on learning about growth persistence is completely lacking. Hidden persistence is a novel way to introduce long-run risk into standard business-cycle models of...

Rietz (1988) and Barro (2006) subject consumption and dividends to rare disasters in the growth rate. We extend their framework and subject consumption and dividends to rare disasters in the growth persistence. We model growth persistence by means of two hidden types of economic slowdowns:...