This paper explores the phenomenon of lasting deviations of the exchange rate from its fundamental value in the foreign exchange market. Motivated by empirical observations a chartists-fundamentalists model is developed in which boundedly rational agents repeatedly choose between technical and...

The aim of this paper is to explain the phenomenon of distortions in the foreign exchange market. Distortions in the sense of (lasting) deviations of the exchange rate from its fundamental value are a sign of market inefficiency. One well known example for such a phenomenon is the bubble path of...

We assess the competitiveness of Mauritius in recent years using two approaches. First, we estimate the difference between the equilibrium and the actual real exchange rate using four methods: the macroeconomic balance approach, the single-equation fundamentals approach, the capital-enhanced...

The paper describes six different methodologies that have been used to assess the equilibrium values of exchange rates and discusses their limitations. It applies several of the approaches to data for the United States as of 2006, illustrates that different approaches sometimes provide...

This Mundell Fleming lecture at the International Monetary Fund’s 2001 annual research conference marks the 25th anniversary of Rudiger Dornbusch’s masterpiece, “Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics,” a seminal contribution to both policy and research in the field of international...

This Selected Issues paper reviews indicators for external competitiveness in Hungary. The paper examines recent developments in a range of indicators. These include regional comparisons of wage and unit labor cost developments, and standard indicators based on price and cost-based measures of...

The IMF's internal analysis of exchange rate issues has been guided by, and limited by, the conceptual and empirical frameworks that have emerged from the collective research of the economics profession. The research has provided several general approaches that are useful for assessing whether...

This paper analyzes competitiveness in the Baltics in the run-up to European Union accession. Several factors appear to have driven movements in equilibrium real exchange rates in the Baltics since the start of the transition process. In the earlier years of transition, price liberalization,...

We provide empirical evidence that deviations from uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) display significant nonlinearities, consistent with theories based on transaction costs or limits to speculation. This evidence suggests that the forward bias documented in the literature may be less...