In this paper we analyze the relative performance of 13 VaR models using daily returns of WTI, Brent, natural gas and heating oil one-month futures contracts. After obtaining VaR estimates we evaluate the statistical significance of the differences in performance of the analyzed VaR models. We...

It has been claimed that the deviations from purchasing power parity are highly persistent and have quite long half-lives under the assumption of a linear adjustment of real exchange rates. However, inspired by trade cost models, nonlinear adjustment has been widely employed in recent empirical...

In this study, we use the threshold unit root test proposed by Caner and Hansen (2001) to re-investigate the time-series properties of stock prices for the nine transition countries during the 2000.10 to 2010.11 period. The empirical results from our threshold unit test indicate that the null...

Nonparametric unit-root tests are a useful addendum to the tool-box of time-series analysis. They tend to trade off power for enhanced robustness features. We consider combinations of the RURS (seasonal range unit roots) test statistic and a variant of the level-crossings count. This combination...

We consider a nonparametric test for the null of seasonal unit roots in quarterly time series that builds on the RUR (records unit root) test by Aparicio, Escribano, and Sipols. We find that the test concept is more promising than a formalization of visual aids such as plots by quarter. In order...

This paper investigates the ex post rational price of Shiller (1981) to determine if it is a reliable guide to fundamental valuations of dividend-yielding assets. The ex post rational price is widely used to determine whether stock market price movements are rational responses to market news or...