We construct a time-varying factor model of hedge fund returns that accounts for market risk, leverage, illiquidity and tail events. We also adjust for database biases arising from voluntary self-reporting. Using a constant beta model, we find no evidence of excess returns for the average hedge...

This note, prepared ahead of the G20 Summit (November 15), builds upon the points laid out in the Managing Director’s letter to the Heads of State and Government (November 9). It lays out two tasks ahead for policy makers. Policies for now should cover:(i)implementing and coordinating...

Suppose a fund manager uses predictors in changing port-folio allocations over time. How does predictability translate into portfolio decisions? To answer this question we derive a new model within the Bayesian framework, where managers are assumed to modulate the systematic risk in part by...

This paper investigates the effect of good or bad news (the asymmetric effect) on the time-varying beta of firms in the UK during good periods (booms) and bad periods (recessions). Daily data from twenty five UK firms of different sizes and from different industries are applied in the empirical...

Beta is the central concept in the CAPM model. If betas vary considerably across time, the CAPM model’s explanatory power would be undermined. The objective of the study is to test the stationarity of beta for automotive and auto-ancillary sector stocks in different market regimes in Indian...

The paper provides evidence on correlation structure forecasting techniques. We use index model parameters to forecast significant parts of securities returns volatility – systematic risk and specific risk. Except of this static perspective we have suggested, improved and dynamised these...

Financial instability is a recurring, macroeconomic phenomenon which has been manifesting itself in form of the Great Recession since 2007. The paper pursues the question of how financial instability affects the risk of a country. We discuss the relation of the risk of a particular country to...

This paper examines the performance of alternative models in estimating systematic risk in the oil industry, considering the traditional market model, three time-varying models, and some combination methods of individual models. This study uses the world's top 10 oil firms’ data series to find...

This paper analyses the evolution of systematic risk of banking industries in eight advanced countries using weekly data from 1990 to 2012. The estimation of time-varying betas is done by means of a Bayesian state space model with stochastic volatility, whose results are contrasted with those of...

This paper empirically investigates the asymmetric effect of news on the time-varying beta of selected banks from seven European countries during the current crisis period and also during the pre-crisis period. The paper applies daily data from thirteen large banks from France, Germany, Greece,...