This note explores the robustness of Hamilton's (Econometrica, 1989) two-regime Markov switching model framework for capturing business-cycle patterns. Applying his exact specification to a revised version of real GNP, I find parameter estimates that are similar to those he reported only when I...

This paper reconsiders the conventional use of econometric models, especially identified vector autoregressive models, in guiding monetary policy. The main question I explore is whether these models are seriously flawed because they ignore asymmetries in the business cycles. Toward that end,...

This note explores the robustness of Hamilton's (Econometrica, 1989) two-regime Markov switching model framework for capturing business-cycle patterns. Applying his exact specification to a revised version of real GNP, I find parameter estimates that are similar to those he reported only when I...

This paper reconsiders the conventional use of econometric models, especially identified vector autoregressive models, in guiding monetary policy. The main question I explore is whether these models are seriously flawed because they ignore asymmetries in the business cycles. Toward that end,...

Mutual funds that track the S&P 500 are popular because they have significantly lower costs than the average, actively managed equity fund. However, a measurable number of investors select index funds with excessive fees and uncompetitive returns. We call this observation the Index Fund...

Social exclusion is closely linked with many economic problems in Latin America, as it prevents people from reaching their full productive potential -in turn constraining growth and revenues- and makes them more likely to incur public health and social service costs. Who's In and Who's Out...