This paper presents a formal model that characterizes the political mechanisms of demographic change, establishing a critical link in economic development. We demonstrate that fertility decisions are determined by three fundamental political variables: political stability, political capacity and...

This paper presents a formal model that characterizes the two faces of development - persistent poverty, as well as industrialization and rising incomes - and establishes that the interaction between politics and economics determines which path a nation travels. We demonstrate that political...

This essay uses a political economy model to study the relationship between urbanisation and demographic change in China. The model identifies political stability and government capacity as two crucial factors that shape family decisions regarding the number of children. As population growth and...

Nuclear deterrence may be a useful political strategy, but it may not provide an effective empirical description of the behavior of nations faced with the prospect of major war. This evaluation is based on two tests. Empirical analysis of extreme crises since 1945 fails to detect substantial...

This inquiry explores whether domestic political and economic levels of destruction account for the ability of developed nations to recover within two decades from the massive economic losses they suffer in the wake of a war. We test Olson's collective goods argument that nations defeated in...

Generalizing the dynamics implied by power transition theory, we characterize the structural conditions that lead nations to initiate conflict or choose to integrate. The relationship between changes in relative power, hierarchical structures, and joint satisfaction are used to identify the...

This is a paper about theory in political economy terms and political economy in theoretical terms. It unifies power transition theory and applies it to the central questions that now confront political economists. Will trade wars emerge as the security challenge declines? What are the economic...

This paper provides a forecast of the likely consequences of ongoing US military activity in Afghanistan, and assesses the implications of a change in the current US policy toward that nation. We use a game theoretic, bounded rationality model, called the Expected Utility model, to analyze the...

This real time evaluation of decisions during the Gulf Crisis were done to establish the utility of systematic evaluations based on the tenets of the micro-economic theory of expected utility. The expected utility framework used assumes that decision-makers evaluate the costs and benefits...