The economic costs of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations over the coming century depend critically on the development of new technologies in the energy sector. Our research and development (R&D) investment strategy is the control variable for technology availability. This paper proposes...

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This paper examines the role of technology in managing the costs of a carbon constraint on the U.S. economy. Two portfolios of technology are examined. One reflects modest investments in climate-friendly technologies, the other more aggressive development. The analysis indicates that the...

This paper analyzes the projected development of energy systems in the Asia region in the hypothetical absence of future carbon policies. Baseline scenarios prepared by participating teams in the Asia Modeling Exercise are used to generate a comprehensive assessment of the key drivers of CO2...

It is becoming increasingly clear that economically efficient climate policies are unlikely to be implemented in the near term. Therefore an analysis is warranted that considers the implications of certain suboptimal transition policies. This analysis constructs a transition scenario based on...

Recent growth in carbon dioxide emissions from China’s energy sector has exceeded expectations. In a major US government study of future emissions released in 2007 (1), participating models appear to have substantially underestimated the near-term rate of increase in China’s emissions. We...

In response to the challenge of managing the risks of a changing climate, there is no single optimal transition path for energy technology due to uncertainty in several dimensions. In this paper, we use the MERGE model, a long-term optimization model of the global energy and climate systems...

Modelling price formation in electricity markets is a notoriously difficult process, due to physical constraints on electricity generation and transmission, and the potential for market power. This difficulty has inspired the recent development of bottom-up agent-based algorithmic learning...