The rising gasoline prices of the past few years were not associated with shifts from vehicles with lower MPG to vehicles with higher MPG. This has been seen as evidence that gasoline prices have little impact on the purchase choices of new-vehicle buyers. However, this paper presents new...

Using US data for the period 1967:5-2002:4, this paper empirically investigates the performance of a Fed's reaction function (FRF) that (i) allows for the presence of switching regimes, (ii) considers the long-short term spread in addition to the typical variables, (iii) uses an alternative...

This paper studies the short run correlation of inflation and money growth. We study whether a model of learning can do better than a model of rational expectations, we focus our study on countries of high inflation. We take the money process as an exogenous variable, estimated from the data...

It is shown that when the Central Bank manages the interest rate differential through standard interventions, aimed at offsetting exogenous disturbances in the foreign exchange market, and agents do not observe the current state of policy, then a Markov switching regimes representation is...

It is shown that when monetary authorities manage the interest rate through anti-inflationary policy rules which allow for occasional discrete shifts, then a Markov switching regimes representation is appropriate for the exchange rate and the interest rate differential series. In this setting,...

The aim of this paper is to identify the fundamental factors that drive the allowances market and to built an APT-like model in order to provide accurate forecasts for CO2. We show that historic dependency patterns emphasis energy, natural gas, oil, coal and equity indexes as major factors...

The purpose of the paper is to propose a global discrete-time modeling of the term structure of interest rates able to capture simultaneously the following important features : (i) an historical dynamics of the factor driving term structure shapes involving several lagged values, and switching...

We investigate in this paper a perpetual prepayment option related to a corporate loan. The default intensity of the rm is supposed to follow a CIR process. We assume the contractual margin of the loan is de ned by the credit quality of the borrower and the liquidity cost that re ects the...

This paper empirically studies the dynamic relationship between monetary and fiscal policies by analyzing the comovements between the Fed funds rate and the primary deficit/output ratio. Simple economic thinking establishes that a negative correlation between Fed rate and deficit arises whenever...

This paper studies the short run correlation of inflation and money growth. We study whether a model of learning can do better than a model of rational expectations, we focus our study on countries of high inflation. We take the money process as an exogenous variable, estimated from the data...