In the crude oil market the phenomenon of Long Memory can be easily identified with the help of the simple (but effective) methodology of Katsumi Shimotsu. The Exact Local Whittle estimator and two testing strategies provide a strong assessment of the phenomenon. We present evidences and we...

This study investigates the asymmetric and time-varying causality between inflation and inflation uncertainty in South Africa within a conditional Gaussian Markov switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) model framework. The MS-VAR model is capable of determining both the sign and direction of...

This note, employing a GARCH model, finds a positive and significant relationship between the level and variability of monthly inflation in India in the period 1957-2005, with causation running from inflation to uncertainty about future inflation, as hypothesized by Friedman. To the extent that...

This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in twelve EMU countries. A time-varying GARCH model is estimated to distinguish between short-run and steady-state inflation uncertainty. The effects of the introduction of the Euro in 1999 are then examined...

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the euro area, and investigates the linkages between them in a VAR framework, also allowing for the possible impact of the policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in...

We use a Markov regime-switching heteroskedasticity model in order to examine the association between inflation and inflation uncertainty in four European countries over the last forty years. This approach allows for regime shifts in both the mean and variance of inflation in order to assess the...

We use over two hundred years of US inflation data to examine the impact of inflation uncertainty on inflation. An analysis of the full period without allowing for various regimes shows no impact of uncertainty on inflation. However, once we distinguish between recessions and non recessions, we...

The paper considers interrelation between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Latvia. The monthly growth in CPI in the period from January 1994 to June 2007 has been used as an inflation measure. The application of the GARCH-M model with lagged inflation in GARCH equation proves that a...

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the euro area, and investigates the linkages between them in a VAR framework, also allowing for the possible impact of the policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in...