This paper aims to investigate whether the effect of inflation expectations, exchange rate, money supply, industrial production and import prices on inflation depends on business cycle. For this purpose, a two states Markov Switching Auto Regression model with time varying transition...

The paper is an investigation concerning whether the deviations of currencies from their fundamental values affects the relationship between economic fundamentals and exchange rates. To this end, a version of the sticky price monetary exchange rate model, which connects the exchange rates to...

The paper aims to investigate whether the effect of the backward-looking inflation expectations, nominal effective exchange rate, money supply, gross domestic product and import prices on inflation depends on business cycle. For this purpose, a two states Markov Switching Auto Regression model...

The paper aims to investigate whether the effect of the backward-looking inflation expectations, nominal effective exchange rate, money supply, gross domestic product and import prices on inflation depends on business cycle. For this purpose, a two states Markov Switching Auto Regression model...

The paper aims to investigate whether the effect of the backward-looking inflation expectations, nominal effective exchange rate, money supply, gross domestic product and import prices on inflation depends on business cycle. For this purpose, a two states Markov Switching Auto Regression model...

There has been a well-known relationship between macro financial fundamentals and oil prices, yet there is also ample evidence that this relationship weakens during some periods. In this paper, we investigated whether the relationship between oil and macro financial fundamentals vary depending...

Holding on gold as an asset has been considered a traditional safe haven for risk averse investors even though holding gold has no yield other than capital asset, especially during the volatile economic periods. Under the Breton Woods agreement the exchange rate is fixed by agreement and the...

[EN] In this note, departing from the observation of systematic price hikes in certain products due to a shift in consumption behavior during Ramadan, we investigate the effects of such changes on food inflation. Empirical findings suggest that Ramadan effect is most significant in red and white...

Recently, Central Bank of Turkey designed new policy instruments in order to reduce the adverse impact of volatile capital flows on macroeconomic and financial stability. This note is aims to introduce one of the new instruments: “Reserve Option Mechanism” (ROM). We describe the transmission...

[TR] Bu not, kredi dinamikleri ile ekonomik buyume arasindaki konjonkturel iliskinin anlasilmasina katkida bulunmak amaciyla, “kredi ivmesi” kavramini tanitarak Turkiye icin hesaplamaktadir. Ozellikle (2011- 2012 yillari gibi) kredilerin artis hizinda onemli degisimler yasanan donemleri...