[spa] Veinte años de previsiones macroeconómicas : un anlisis a partir de datos Franceses, . por Didier Borowski, Carine Bouthevillain, Catherine Doz, Pierre Malgrange y Pierre Morin.. . En el presente artículo se examina el grado de precisión que han alcanzado las previsiones...

This paper shows consistency of a two step estimator of the parameters of a dynamic approximate factor model when the panel of time series is large (n large). In the first step, the parameters are first estimated from an OLS on principal components. In the second step, the factors are estimated...

In recent years, central banks and international organisations have been making ever greater use of factor models to forecast macroeconomic variables. We examine the performance of these models in forecasting French GDP growth over short horizons. The factors are extracted from a large data set...

The official institutions (NBER, OECD, CEPR and others) provide business cycle chronology with a lag from 3 months up to several years. Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model (MS-DFM) allows to produce the turning points more timely. The Kalman filter estimates of the model can be obtained in one...

This paper shows consistency of a two step estimation of the factors in a dynamic approximate factor model when the panel of time series is large ( large). In the first step, the parameters of the model are estimated from an OLS on principal components. In the second step, the factors are...

This paper shows consistency of a two step estimation of the factors in a dynamic approximate factor model when the panel of time series is large ( large). In the first step, the parameters of the model are estimated from an OLS on principal components. In the second step, the factors are...

In recent years, central banks and international organisations have been making ever greater use of factor models to forecast macroeconomic variables. We examine the performance of these models in forecasting French GDP growth over short horizons. The factors are extracted from a large data set...

[spa] Reseña acerca de los tests de rationalidad, . por Catherine Doz.. . En esta reseña se examina el principio de los tests de sesgo de las previsiones y las dificultades que se plantean a este respecte Ahora bien, los resultados de estos tests deben considerarse la mayoría de la veces con...

[fre] L'analyse des séries macro-économiques repose généralement sur une décomposition en tendance et cycle. Cet article est consacré à l'examen de méthodes purement statistiques d'extraction d'une tendance et d'un cycle à partir d'une série brute ; il se limite aux techniques...

In recent years, factor models have received increasing interest from central banks and international organizations to forecast macroeconomic variables. We examine the performance of these models in forecasting the French GDP growth rate over short horizons. The factors are extracted from a...