We introduce a weak hidden Markov model (WHMM) in an attempt to capture more accurately the evolution of a risky asset. The log returns of assets are modulated by a weak or higher-order Markov chain with finite-state space. In particular, the optimal estimates of the second-order Markov chain...

We introduce a weak hidden Markov model (WHMM) in an attempt to capture more accurately the evolution of a risky asset. The log returns of assets are modulated by a weak or higher-order Markov chain with finite-state space. In particular, the optimal estimates of the second-order Markov chain...

We propose a model for the evolution of arbitrage-free futures prices under a regime-switching framework. The estimation of model parameters is carried out using the hidden Markov filtering algorithms. Comprehensive numerical experiments on real financial market data are provided to illustrate...

This paper reformulates the valuation of interest rate swaps, swap leg payments and swap risk measures, all under stochastic interest rates, as a problem of solving a system of linear equations with random perturbations. A sequence of uniform approximations which solves this system is developed...

A two-factor Vasicek model, where the mean reversion level changes according to a continuous time finite state Markov chain, is considered. This model could capture the behaviour of monetary authorities who normally set a reference rate which changes from time to time. We derive the term...

In this paper we develop a model for electricity spot price dynamics. The spot price is assumed to follow an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process with an added compound Poisson process. In this way, the model allows for mean-reversion and possible jumps. All parameters are modulated by a...