In Italy, in July 2003, a new highway code came into force. Among other things, it posits a «revolutionary » point-system driving licence. This paper analyses optimal punishment schemes and shows that a simpler policy intervention, such as a dynamic increase in the size of the pecuniary...

In this paper we propose a generalisation of the noise trader transmission mechanism to examine the impact of central bank intervention on exchange rates. Within a heterogeneous expectations exchange rate model intervention operations are supposed to provide support to either chartist or...

In this paper, the Local Global Neural Networks model is proposed within the context of time series models. This formulation encompasses some already existing nonlinear models and also admits the Mixture of Experts approach. We place emphasis on the linear expert case and extensively discuss the...

Estimation of Weibull distribution shape and scale parameters is accomplished through use of symmetrically located percentiles from a sample. The process requires algebraic solution of two equations derived from the cumulative distribution function. Three alternatives examined are compared for...

We derive the second order asymptotic bias for a statistic evaluating the quality of out-of-sample forecasts by parametric models. The existing literature admits that the quality of the first order asymptotic approximation may be unsatisfactory. We find that the second order asymptotic bias...

We present a framework for statistical analysis of discrete event systems which combines tools such as simulation of marked point processes, likelihood methods, kernel density estimation and stochastic approximation to enable statistical analysis of the discrete event system, even if...

The effects of parameter estimation are examined for the well-known c-chart for attributes data. The exact run length distribution is obtained for Phase II applications, when the true average number of non-conformities, c, is unknown, by conditioning on the observed number of non-conformities in...

The paper discusses different methods to deal with unobservable variables: Kalman-Filtering, principal components, factor analysis, LISREL, MIMIC, DYMIMIC, PLS with respect to parameter estimation and forecasting. We got very good results by an extension of Kalman-Filtering called AS (general...

Parameter estimation based on uncertain data represented as belief structures is one of the latest problems in the Dempster–Shafer theory. In this paper, a novel method is proposed for the parameter estimation in the case where belief structures are uncertain and represented as interval-valued...

In this paper gray-box models of the residential heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system were developed. The HVAC system comprises of several subsystems such as energy recovery ventilator (ERV), air handling unit (AHU), buffer tank (BT), radiant floor heating (RFH) system, zone...