Showing 1 - 10 of 13,274
When people agree to disagree, this paper examines the impact of the disagreement among agents on market equilibrium and equity premium. Within the standard mean variance framework, we consider a market of two risky assets, a riskless asset and two (and then a continuum of) agents who have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008515807
With the standard mean variance framework, by assuming heterogeneity and bounded rationality of investors, this paper examines their impact on the market equilibrium and implications to the portfolio analysis. By constructing a market consensus belief, we establish market equilibrium prices of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004984476
With only minimal restrictions on security payoffs and trader preferences, noisy aggregation of heterogeneous information drives a systematic wedge between the impact of fundamentals on the price of a security, and the corresponding impact on cash flow expectations. From an ex ante perspective,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083236
The booms and busts in U.S. stock prices over the post-war period can to a large extent be explained by fluctuations in investors` subjective capital gains expectations. Survey measures of these expectations display excessive optimism at market peaks and excessive pessimism at market throughs....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083442
We study the dynamics of a Lucas-tree model with finitely lived agents who “learn from experience.” Individuals update expectations by Bayesian learning based on observations from their own lifetimes. In this model, the stock price exhibits stochastic boom-and-bust fluctuations around the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009370183
speculative bubbles in financial markets. In the first part of the paper, we have presented the most known speculative bubbles … of the paper we have briefly presented the four main stages of developing speculative bubbles. In the last part of the … paper we have concluded that besides the general opinion that bubbles make more harm to investors and economies, the human …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010607210
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005706817
The purpose of this paper is to look for bubbles in the Art Market using a structure based on steady state results for … TAR models and appropriate definitions of bubbles recently put forward by Knight, Satchell and Srivastava (2011). The … usual method for investigating bubbles is to measure prices as deviations from fair value. We assess whether it is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886284
This paper provides an early warning indicator for bubbles in financial markets. The indicator is based on traditional … consensus bubbles and gives warning signals well ahead of the crash, in most cases as early as 12 months ahead. The indicator … also signals most of the 'negative bubbles' before their turning points. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010611666
This article rejects the linkages in proposals that the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) target equity prices. The real federal funds rate (RFF) and stock prices (SP) are uncorrelated; causality tests show a positive effect of SP on RFF and a negative effect of SP on RFF. These results occur as part of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008476386