This paper offers a plausible explanation for the close link between oil prices and aggregate macroeconomic performance in the 1970s. Although this link has been well documented in the empirical literature, standard economic models are not able to replicate this link when actual oil prices are...

We show that dependence on foreign energy can increase economic instability by raising the likelihood of equilibrium indeterminacy, hence making fluctuations driven by self-fulfilling expectations easier to occur. This is demonstrated in a standard neoclassical growth model. Calibration...

Aguiar-Conraria and Wen (2008) argued that dependence on foreign oil raises the likelihood of equilibrium indeterminacy (economic instability) for oil importing countries. We argue that this relation is more subtle. The endogenous choices of prices and quantities by a cartel of oil exporters,...

Goodwin's predator—prey model is structurally unstable, with an equilibrium that is neither stable nor unstable. Ploeg showed that relaxing the hypothesis of fixed proportion technology would stabilize the equilibrium. On the other hand, Goodwin showed that the equilibrium becomes...

We assess U.S. monetary policy across time and frequencies in the framework of the Taylor Rule (TR). First, we portray the deviations between policy interest rates and the TR-prescribed rates with a set of continuous wavelet tools, comprising the coherency, phase-difference and gain. Then, using...

A body of work using the continuous wavelet transform has been growing. We provide a self-contained summary on its most relevant theoretical results, describe how such transforms can be implemented in practice, and generalize the concept of simple coherency to partial wavelet coherency and...

We use wavelet analysis to investigate to what extent individual U.S. states' business cycles are synchronized. The results show that the U.S. states are remarkably well synchronized compared to the previous findings w.r.t. the Euro Area. There is also a strong and significant correlation...

We characterize the interrelation of CO2 prices with energy prices (gas and electricity), and with economic activity. Previous studies have relied on time-domain techniques, such as Vector Auto-Regressions. In this study, we use multivariate wavelet analysis, which operates in the time-frequency...

Using data from Phase II-III of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme, we characterize CO2 prices interrelation with energy prices (gas, electricity and coal), carbon allowances substitute prices and with economic activity index. We estimate a vector autoregressive model and the responses...