We investigate the performance and risk of currency hedge funds using a large and unique consolidated currency hedge fund dataset. We find that a substantial number of hedge funds generate returns that exceed foreign exchange risk premia obtained through carry trades. The best alpha-generating...

We investigate the comovement between sovereign and bank credit riskin the Euro area over the period 2008-2010. We construct two synthetic credit risk measures of the European sovereign and banking sectors thatcan be used for macro-prudential supervision. We estimate a Vector error-correction...

type="main" xml:lang="en" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>We perform a cross-country comparison of stock market risk. Stock market risk is defined as the standard deviation of cumulative stock market returns. We model stock market returns in a VAR(1) system jointly with bond returns and a set of predictive variables....</p>

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We examine the forecasting performance of a range of time-series models of the daily U.S. effective federal funds (FF) rate recently proposed in the literature. We find that: (1) most of the models and predictor variables considered produce satisfactory one-day-ahead forecasts of the FF rate,...

A growing body of empirical literature has established interest rate rules as a convenient way to model and interpret monetary policy. However, as pointed out by Rudebusch (1998), vector autoregression (VAR) models used to recover the central banks' reaction functions generally rely on the...

This paper investigates the source of predictability of bond risk premia by means of long-term forward interest rates. We show that the predictive ability of forward rates could be due to the high serial correlation and cross-correlation of bond prices. We show that the predictive ability of...