before, students were used as role-players, and others provided forecasts using their judgement. When averaged across eight … predictions) than 357 forecasts by students who used their unaided judgement (32%). Sixty-two percent of 105 simulated …

actualización bibliográfica sobre el tema. In this teaching note I explain a method to obtain consensus among the members of a group …

reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve … environment, we analyse the forecasting behaviour of students experimentally, using a simulated currency series. Our results … indicate that a topically oriented trend adjustment behaviour (TOTA) is a general characteristic of human forecasting behaviour …

reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve … environment, we analyse the forecasting behaviour of students experimentally, using a simulated currency series. Our results … indicate that topically-oriented trend adjustment behaviour (TOTA) is a general characteristic of human forecasting behaviour …

An experiment is reported which compares directional forecasting performance of experts, novices and simple statistical … models over three time horizons on a task involving probabilistic forecasts of exchange rate movements. Probability-judgement … between the groups on various important components of judgement suggested that the groups obtained their similar overall …

methods including extrapolation, quantitative analogies, rule-based forecasting, and causal methods. Otherwise, use methods … that structure judgement including surveys of intentions and expectations, judgmental bootstrapping, structured analogies …, there are opportunities to improve efficiency by adopting these forecasting practices. …

An alternative to using a single forecasting method is to average the forecasts made by various methods. In this paper … predict corporate earnings per share. We conclude that, on average, the primary forecasting advantages of analysts over time … beginning of the fiscal year. For predictions in the first half of the fiscal year, there is evidence of forecasting benefits …

When forecasting decisions in conflict situations, experts are often advised to figuratively stand in the other person …