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We show the existence of a very short-term relationship at the daily frequency between changes in the price of a country's major commodity export price and changes in its nominal exchange rate. The relationship appears to be robust and to hold when we use contemporaneous (realized) commodity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011118618
This paper investigates whether oil prices have a reliable and stable out-of-sample relationship with the Canadian/U.S dollar nominal exchange rate. Despite state-of-the-art methodologies, we find little systematic relation between oil prices and the exchange rate at the monthly and quarterly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009359490
-step-ahead forecastabilities by employing four major forecasting evaluation criteria, and compares two different currencies— the Pakistan rupee and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010905735
A practice that has become widespread and widely endorsed is that of evaluating forecasts of financial variability obtained from discrete time models by comparing them with high-frequency ex post estimates (e.g. realised volatility) based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005082938
financial variables. The aim of this work is to compare the forecasting performance of different models for the returns of some … counterparts. Although we find evidence of some forecasting gains from nonlinear models, the results are sensitive to the forecast … horizon and to the metric adopted to measure the forecasting accuracy. The use of data at different frequencies allows us to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010660752
-- sequential adaptive ridge regression -- that prevent overfitting in-sample for better and more stable forecasting performance out … information about exchange rates even for short forecasting horizons -- and the Meese and Rogoff (1983) puzzle is overturned. Such …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011147708
. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of the TVP-VAR model is evaluated against the simple VAR and ARIMA models, by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008800065
forecasting models reduces forecast errors compared with a single model. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010903380
monthly to daily observations on exchange rates. Thus the basic thrust of the paper is to analyse the forecasting accuracy of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005619306
, estimation method or the forecasting horizon) outperform the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting if forecasting power is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010777112